Breakout Breakdown
In this systematic trading teardown, we analyze the latest 20/80 breakout scan universe filtered via quantitative momentum and Zero Lag Exponential Moving Average (ZLEMA) proximity. When evaluating tight-range momentum setups (Breakout Scores 54–84), trading performance hinges on cleanly separating high-velocity extension plays from baseline mean-reversion retests.
1. Raw Scan Feed & Technical Metrics
Below is the processed breakout universe sorting candidates by score strength, baseline proximity, and distance from their dynamic ZLEMA trailing support.
| Symbol | Score | Type | Close Dist (%) | ZLEMA Baseline | Est. Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARHS | 84 | Strong | +2.3% | $9.29 | $9.50 |
| MRNA | 78 | Strong | +1.6% | $190.69 | $193.74 |
| SITM | 75 | Strong | +2.5% | $644.00 | $660.10 |
| TEM | 72 | Strong | +2.5% | $81.94 | $83.99 |
| CDNA | 71 | Strong | +0.9% | $59.24 | $59.77 |
| VFC | 68 | Strong | +1.6% | $13.62 | $13.84 |
| CNK | 66 | Strong | +1.4% | $36.68 | $37.19 |
| TXN | 66 | Strong | +1.7% | $274.03 | $278.69 |
| SATL | 64 | Strong | +0.6% | $5.86 | $5.90 |
| SMCI | 64 | Strong | +1.3% | $42.17 | $42.72 |
| ARW | 62 | Strong | +1.0% | $227.27 | $229.54 |
| VTRS | 62 | Strong | +1.3% | $17.42 | $17.65 |
| PDFS | 62 | Strong | +0.5% | $48.39 | $48.63 |
| KN | 61 | Strong | +1.1% | $36.94 | $37.35 |
| ADI | 60 | Strong | +0.8% | $389.31 | $392.42 |
| AMAT | 60 | Strong | 0.0% | $475.79 | $475.79 |
| AVT | 59 | Strong | +0.4% | $100.91 | $101.31 |
| CRCT | 58 | Strong | +0.3% | $5.92 | $5.94 |
| SSYS | 55 | Strong | +0.5% | $8.13 | $8.17 |
| DAL | 54 | Strong | +0.1% | $83.36 | $83.44 |
2. Quantitative Execution Matrix
The table below breaks down the high-conviction trade plans. Each ticker features exact trigger zones, profit target targets anchored to volatility multiples (1.5x to 2.5x ATR), strict invalidation exit rules, expected return windows, and estimated statistical probabilities.
| Ticker | Score | Setup Category | Entry Trigger Zone | Target Exit Zone | Hard Stop (Exit 0) | Expected Return | Hit Prob (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARHS | 84 | High-Velocity Continuation | Break over $9.75 (Prior High) | $10.65 – $11.20 | Daily Close < $9.29 | +9.2% to +14.8% | 68% |
| SITM | 75 | High-Velocity Continuation | Pullback Limit @ $650 – $655 | $710.00 – $735.00 | Daily Close < $644.00 | +8.4% to +12.2% | 62% |
| TEM | 72 | High-Velocity Continuation | Break over $85.20 | $92.50 – $96.00 | Daily Close < $81.94 | +8.5% to +12.6% | 65% |
| AMAT | 60 | Baseline Compression | Limit Touch @ $475.80 – $478.00 | $505.00 – $520.00 | Hard Stop < $471.00 | +6.1% to +9.2% | 74% |
| DAL | 54 | Baseline Compression | Limit Touch @ $83.40 – $83.80 | $88.50 – $91.00 | Hard Stop < $82.50 | +5.6% to +8.6% | 78% |
| PDFS | 62 | Baseline Compression | Limit Touch @ $48.60 – $48.90 | $52.50 – $54.50 | Hard Stop < $47.80 | +7.3% to +11.4% | 71% |
| TXN | 66 | Mid-Tier Expansion | Consolidation Break @ $280.00 | $298.00 – $305.00 | Daily Close < $274.03 | +6.4% to +8.9% | 66% |
| CNK | 66 | Mid-Tier Expansion | ORB over $38.00 | $41.50 – $43.00 | Daily Close < $36.68 | +9.2% to +13.1% | 63% |
| SMCI | 64 | Mid-Tier Expansion | Limit Entry @ $42.50 – $43.00 | $48.00 – $51.50 | Daily Close < $42.17 | +11.6% to +19.7% | 54% |
3. Strategic Breakdown By Setup Archetype
Archetype 1: High-Velocity Extension (ARHS, SITM, TEM)
These assets exhibit high momentum score parameters (Score ≥ 72) and trade +1.5% to +2.5% above their dynamic baseline. Trade execution requires waiting for an Opening Range Breakout (ORB) on elevated Relative Volume ($ ext{RVOL} > 1.3$). Trailing stop triggers remain strictly bound to the ZLEMA baseline line.
Archetype 2: Baseline Compression Retest (AMAT, DAL, PDFS)
Compression setups feature small extension values (0.0% to +0.5%). Because price is hugging the ZLEMA baseline, these setups carry the highest statistical hit rates (70%–78%) and optimal Risk-to-Reward profiles due to narrow stop distance.
Archetype 3: Volatility Expansion Plays (SMCI, TXN, CNK)
These mid-tier names display balanced compression structures prior to potential ATR expansion. `SMCI` represents a higher-variance play with wide potential profit distributions (+19.7%) balanced by a lower historical setup completion probability (54%).
- Position Sizing: Normalize capital allocation using $1.5 imes ext{ATR}$ volatility parity, limiting total risk to ≤ 1.0% of portfolio capital per signal.
- Hard Downturn Invalidation (Exit 0): If price closes below the baseline or the ZLEMA indicator slope rolls over on the target timeframe, exit at the market open.
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