Bouncing Off Recent Supports
Near the average, near the low: what Friday’s bounce screen actually showed
A near-MA / near-low screen is doing one job: find stocks that have already done most of the damage and have not yet broken the structure traders usually defend (the 50-day, the 200-day, or a 20–40 day swing low). High scores here often belong to quiet, low-vol names hugging an average — which is why BRK-B and C can sit at 96 while a washed-out clinical biotech scores lower.
Three clusters dominate. Treat them as three trades, not thirty independent ideas.
How to read the columns
Swipe or scroll sideways on small screens.
| Field | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Starred ticker | Names already on the watchlist |
| 96 … 73 | Composite rank (higher = cleaner fit to the screen) |
| Price | Friday close |
| s50 / s200 | Distance versus the 50-day or 200-day simple moving average |
| 20d / 40d | Distance versus a short lookback low (often the recent swing low) |
| % | How far price is from that anchor |
| RSI + Low / Med / Hig | Momentum plus a volatility or range regime bucket |
Public prints that line up: CGON 67.15 versus a 66.76 day low (+0.6%); ELVN 44.75 versus about 44.17 (+1.3%); EXPE 264.17 versus a roughly 260 200-day (+1.5–1.8%).
Cluster 1 — Banks and financials (the bulk of the top)
This is one factor trade: regional and quality banks sitting on averages after a grind, plus a couple of credit vehicles.
Swipe or scroll sideways on small screens.
| Ticker | Name | What it is | TradingView |
|---|---|---|---|
| BRK-B | Berkshire Hathaway Class B | Quality hold, not a bounce. High score because it is hugging an average. | NYSE:BRK.B |
| C | Citigroup | Large-cap bank. Defensive on the average, not crash-oversold. | NYSE:C |
| CBSH | Commerce Bancshares | Midwest quality regional. | NASDAQ:CBSH |
| CBC | Central Bancompany | Missouri community bank. Different float story than the megabanks. | NASDAQ:CBC |
| CFFN | Capitol Federal Financial | Topeka thrift. Rate-sensitive housing book. | NASDAQ:CFFN |
| ASB | Associated Banc-Corp | Wisconsin regional. | NYSE:ASB |
| CFR | Cullen/Frost Bankers | Texas franchise, usually priced as quality. | NYSE:CFR |
| BPOP | Popular, Inc. | Puerto Rico / US banking name. | NASDAQ:BPOP |
| CGBD | Carlyle Secured Lending | BDC. Credit beta, not deposit beta. | NASDAQ:CGBD |
| ABI | VictoryShares Pioneer Asset-Based Income ETF | Not AB InBev. Small AUM, asset-backed / private-credit adjacent income. | NASDAQ:ABI |
How to use it: size the regionals as a basket. If the thesis is “soft landing + NIMs stabilize,” they move together. Do not treat CBC, ASB, and CFFN as three independent edge cases.
Cluster 2 — Gold, silver, and materials
This is a metals-complex overlay, not single-stock alpha.
Swipe or scroll sideways on small screens.
| Ticker | Name | Friday close / note | TradingView |
|---|---|---|---|
| GLD | SPDR Gold Shares | 393.41. Cleanest bullion proxy. Slightly off recent local highs. | AMEX:GLD |
| GDX | VanEck Gold Miners | 92.87. Miners are not GLD with free leverage. | AMEX:GDX |
| SIL | Global X Silver Miners | Silver-miner basket. Moves with the metals complex. | AMEX:SIL |
| AU | AngloGold Ashanti | Senior gold producer overlay. | NYSE:AU |
| CDE | Coeur Mining | Higher-beta miner. | NYSE:CDE |
| ALB | Albemarle | Lithium / materials. Sits nearby on the screen; it is not a gold name. | NYSE:ALB |
If the thesis is real rates, the dollar, and the gold trend, GLD + GDX + SIL is one position. Split them only if you have a view on miners versus bullion.
Cluster 3 — Clinical biotech, compounders, and the odd micro-cap
Starred: CGON — CG Oncology
Close 67.15 · score 95 · NASDAQ
Open CGON on TradingView
Late-stage bladder-cancer name (cretostimogene grenadenorepvec). Friday’s range printed a 66.76 low; the close was a few cents off that floor after a slide from the high-70s / ~81 area. The 52-week range is roughly 35.64–80.97. Analysts still cluster around a Strong Buy / about $91 target.
This is a single-asset, pre-commercial name. Cash was about $1.1 billion as of Q1 2026, with runway cited through 2029. The actual drivers are BLA timing (completion guided for Q4 2026 after FDA alignment) and PIVOT-006 Phase 3 topline in intermediate-risk NMIBC. RSI in the mid-30s is “weak,” not crash-oversold. The chart is a dip-to-low; the stock lives or dies on data and filing, not the 40-day.
Invalidation (technical): a weekly close through the 25 Sep low (~66.76) with volume, or a delay / miss on BLA or PIVOT-006.
Invalidation (fundamental): a cash-burn surprise or a label / CMC problem that pushes commercial timing.
Starred: ELVN — Enliven Therapeutics
Close 44.75 · score 76 · NASDAQ
Open ELVN on TradingView
The only starred name that looks like a true washout. One-month return about −26%. Price is hugging the 40-day low (~44.18) while the 50-day still sits well above (~56 area on the original screen). Phase 1 ENABLE data in CML for ELVN-001 was constructive. FDA alignment on Phase 3 ENABLE-2 (80 mg QD) and a cash pile cited around $895 million, runway into 2030. Clinical-stage, Strong Buy / ~$74-type targets — same “pipeline versus chart” split as CGON.
Invalidation: a break of the September swing low on rising volume, or a Phase 3 start / design stumble.
Starred: EXPE — Expedia Group
Close 264.17 · score 87 · NASDAQ
Open EXPE on TradingView
Highest-quality business among the stars. Friday’s close sits just above the 200-day SMA (~260), well below the 50-day (~298) after a sharp September pullback (20-day SMA ~287). RSI in the mid-30s. This is a trend-hold / dip-to-200dma setup, not a speculative bounce.
Invalidation: a weekly close under the 200-day that does not reclaim quickly. That would turn “hold the trend” into “the trend is gone.”
Quality compounders on the same screen
- AMZN — Amazon. Same idea as EXPE / BRK-B: quality, near an average, not a lottery ticket. NASDAQ:AMZN
- CCK — Crown Holdings. Packaging compounder, MA-hugger. NYSE:CCK
Other biotech and special situations
- AMLX — Amylyx. Still a clinical / commercial story; treat as pipeline risk, not a bank. NASDAQ:AMLX
- ATAI — AtaiBeckley. Do not trade this as a live bounce. Multiple tapes show the name acquired by LLY / delisted around 10–13 Sep 2026, last prints near 7.35. If it is still on your screen, the screen is stale. NASDAQ:ATAI (likely a dead symbol)
- CAST — FreeCast. Friday close 1.19, micro-cap. Already crushed, high-regime noise. Different risk bucket from BRK-B / AMZN. Skip or tiny. NASDAQ:CAST
- Mean-reversion names also flagged: ALL (Allstate) NYSE:ALL and BOX NYSE:BOX.
How I would actually use the screen
Mean-reversion candidates. ELVN first (real washout). Then ALL / BOX if RSI is still in the teens–20s. CGON only if you already own the bladder-cancer story and are adding on the 40-day low — not as a cold start from a composite score.
Trend / quality holds. BRK-B, AMZN, EXPE, CCK. Close to MAs, not broken. Size like core holdings, not like event-driven biotech.
Factor baskets. Regional banks = one trade. Gold / silver = one trade. Do not size CBC, ASB, CFFN, GLD, GDX, and SIL as six independent bets.
Skip or tiny. CAST. ATAI if the symbol is still printing on a stale feed. ABI if you thought it was beer.
Keep / cut / watch
Swipe or scroll sideways on small screens.
| Name | Bias | Invalidation |
|---|---|---|
| EXPE | Keep / add on a 200-day hold | Weekly close under about 260 that fails to reclaim |
| BRK-B / AMZN | Keep | Break of the 200-day with weak breadth |
| CGON | Watch / small add only if you own the story | Close under 66.76 plus bad BLA or PIVOT news |
| ELVN | Watch — best washout on the star list | New low below the September swing |
| GLD / GDX / SIL | One metals overlay | Gold trend break, not a single-day RSI print |
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