Rebound Scanner Breakdown
Friday’s Rebound Screen, Put Together
Levels, setups, and scenario returns off the Aug 28 close
Published Saturday, August 29, 2026 · Data as of Friday’s session · Not investment advice
The default rebound profile printed 30 hits out of 67 names on Friday. The top ten are not one trade. They are two tapes that happened to share a drawdown.
Tape A is the Jackson Hole rate shock: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh talked inflation first, September hike odds jumped, the 2-year led yields higher, the 2s/10s flattened, and the Russell 2000 fell 1.4%. Regional banks, a utility, a REIT, and an ag processor got marked down together.
Tape B is leftover momentum. Kura and JFrog still sit with RSI in the 60s. Those are pullbacks inside uptrends, not washouts.
Use the first group if you want mean reversion into Monday. Use the second group only if you already wanted the story.
Prices below are the screen prints (KURA 12.85, FROG 100.65, etc.). Official closes were a few ticks different on a couple of names — FROG settled $98.74 after tagging a $105.76 high, KURA settled $12.66. Levels are built off the screen plus Friday’s ranges and known swing points. Percentage moves are technical scenarios for a 3–10 session rebound, not 12-month targets.
How to use the table
| Field | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Buy zone | Where a bounce attempt is valid |
| Invalidation | Daily close under this, the rebound thesis is wrong |
| T1 / T2 / T3 | Nearby supply, measured move, prior swing |
| R:R | T2 reward vs. stop, using the mid of the buy zone |
ATR on the banks and Dominion is 1.4–2.0%. That is a real swing-trade canvas. ATR on KURA and FROG is 5.5–6.5%. Same “rebound” label, different position size.
Monday filter: if the 2-year yield fades and KRE is green in the first hour, the bank/utility basket is the trade. If yields keep going and IWM is red again, stand down. Do not average the high-RSI names just because they scored 150+.
Ranked opportunities
1. Regional-bank basket — VLY, FHN, WTFC, COLB
Best expression of the screen. Four of the ten names are the same factor: deposit costs and a flatter curve after Warsh. KRE has been tracking the 2s/10s lower since mid-August. Buy them as a four-name equal-weight, not as a hero trade in one ticker.
Valley National (VLY) · $13.98 · RSI 36 · ATR 1.9% · DD −8%
TradingView: NASDAQ:VLY
Q2 already printed. The overlay is a ~$247 million deal for Chicago’s Providence Financial — expansion, not distress. Street cluster sits around $16, with Raymond James at $17.
| Metric | Level | vs $13.98 |
|---|---|---|
| Buy zone | 13.70 – 14.10 | — |
| Invalidation | 13.40 close | −4.1% |
| T1 | 14.70 | +5.2% |
| T2 | 15.50 | +10.9% |
| T3 | 16.00 – 16.20 | +14–16% |
R:R into T2 ≈ 2.6 : 1. Monday first prints will be deal-reaction. If it gaps through 14.30 on volume, skip the dip-buy and wait for the first 30-minute high to hold.
First Horizon (FHN) · $24.42 · RSI 37 · ATR 1.7% · DD −8%
TradingView: NYSE:FHN
Still a post-TD-break cleanup tape. Recent Street work framed a ~$27 objective. Tightest ATR in the bank group.
| Metric | Level | vs $24.42 |
|---|---|---|
| Buy zone | 24.10 – 24.50 | — |
| Invalidation | 23.70 close | −2.9% |
| T1 | 25.50 | +4.4% |
| T2 | 26.50 | +8.5% |
| T3 | 27.00 | +10.6% |
Wintrust (WTFC) · $153.49 · RSI 39 · ATR 2.0% · DD −8%
TradingView: NASDAQ:WTFC
Higher-quality Midwestern franchise. Same factor, larger dollar swings. Size down versus VLY/FHN.
| Metric | Level | vs $153.49 |
|---|---|---|
| Buy zone | 151.50 – 154.00 | — |
| Invalidation | 149.80 close | −2.4% |
| T1 | 157.00 | +2.3% |
| T2 | 161.00 | +4.9% |
| T3 | 166.00 | +8.2% |
Columbia Banking (COLB) · $30.37 · RSI 38 · ATR 1.8% · DD −10%
TradingView: NASDAQ:COLB
Largest drawdown in the bank quartet. Older JPM work sat at $33. Needs KRE confirmation more than the others.
| Metric | Level | vs $30.37 |
|---|---|---|
| Buy zone | 29.90 – 30.50 | — |
| Invalidation | 29.40 close | −3.2% |
| T1 | 31.50 | +3.7% |
| T2 | 32.50 | +7.0% |
| T3 | 33.50 | +10.3% |
Basket math: equal-weight the four, stop the whole sleeve if KRE loses Friday’s low on a closing basis. Realistic 5-session rebound if yields give back the Warsh spike: +5% to +8%. Stretch if the curve steepens: +10%.
2. Dominion Energy (D) — cleanest single-name mean reversion
$66.21 · RSI 35 · ATR 1.4% · DD −9%
TradingView: NYSE:D
Lowest RSI and lowest ATR on the board. Utilities were a Friday laggard sector. This is duration, not a broken plant. Consensus around $70 is only mid-single-digit upside, which is exactly what a rebound trade should look like.
| Metric | Level | vs $66.21 |
|---|---|---|
| Buy zone | 65.60 – 66.40 | — |
| Invalidation | 64.90 close | −2.0% |
| T1 | 67.50 | +1.9% |
| T2 | 69.00 | +4.2% |
| T3 | 70.50 | +6.5% |
R:R into T2 ≈ 2 : 1. If the 10-year holds Friday’s high, D just sits. If it fades 5–8 bp, this is the first name that should tick.
3. Iron Mountain (IRM) — rates plus data centers
$121.17 · RSI 45 · ATR 2.9% · DD −10%
TradingView: NYSE:IRM
Records + data-center REIT. 52-week high $134.68, this week’s wash $117.85. RSI 45 means it is not as washed as the banks. Needs a risk-on bid, not just a dead-cat in KRE.
| Metric | Level | vs $121.17 |
|---|---|---|
| Buy zone | 118.50 – 121.50 | — |
| Invalidation | 117.50 close | −3.0% |
| T1 | 125.00 | +3.2% |
| T2 | 130.00 | +7.3% |
| T3 | 134.50 | +11.0% |
4. Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) — idiosyncratic, slower
$79.10 · RSI 46 · ATR 3.1% · DD −11%
TradingView: NYSE:ADM
Biggest drawdown on the list, mid RSI. Ag processing, not a duration toy. Mid-August it was sitting near $80.30 after a guidance raise. This is a grind, not a one-day flush.
| Metric | Level | vs $79.10 |
|---|---|---|
| Buy zone | 77.80 – 79.30 | — |
| Invalidation | 76.40 close | −3.4% |
| T1 | 81.50 | +3.0% |
| T2 | 83.50 | +5.6% |
| T3 | 86.00 | +8.7% |
5. Cryoport (CYRX) — already at the highs
$16.27 · RSI 55 · ATR 4.0% · DD −5%
TradingView: NASDAQ:CYRX
Temperature-controlled biopharma logistics. The 52-week cap sits near $16.73–$16.89. RSI 55 plus a 5% dip at the highs is a continuation attempt, not an oversold bounce. Only chase a daily close through $16.90 with volume. Otherwise wait for $15.20–$15.50.
| Metric | Level | vs $16.27 |
|---|---|---|
| Buy zone (breakout) | 16.90 close | +3.9% trigger |
| Buy zone (dip) | 15.20 – 15.60 | −4% to −7% |
| Invalidation | 14.60 close | −10.3% |
| T1 | 16.90 | +3.9% |
| T2 | 18.00 | +10.6% |
| T3 | 19.50 | +19.9% |
Wide ATR. Half-size versus the banks.
6. Kura Oncology (KURA) — momentum pullback, not a washout
$12.85 · RSI 64 · ATR 6.5% · DD −8% · score 156
TradingView: NASDAQ:KURA
Commercial-stage menin inhibitor (KOMZIFTI / ziftomenib) in R/R NPM1-mutant AML. Q2 product revenue is real. CEO Troy Wilson bought 100k shares around $12.39 this week (second sizable buy in roughly a week). 52-week range $7.36–$13.90. This week: low $11.43, spike $13.90, Friday fade to the mid-$12s.
RSI 64 after an 8% dip is strength pausing, not capitulation. ATR 6.5% means a normal session can eat a tight stop. Size this only if you wanted the biotech.
| Metric | Level | vs $12.85 |
|---|---|---|
| Buy zone | 12.40 – 12.90 | CEO-buy shelf |
| Invalidation | 11.40 close | −11.3% |
| T1 | 13.20 | +2.7% |
| T2 | 13.90 | +8.2% |
| T3 | 15.50 | +20.6% |
Street numbers ($24 Citizens, higher long-term work) are not a 5-day rebound target. Treat $13.90 as the trade. A daily close back through $13.90 opens the stretch. A close under $11.40 ends it.
7. JFrog (FROG) — climax day, event next week
$100.65 screen / $98.74 official close · RSI 63 · ATR 5.5% · DD −4%
TradingView: NASDAQ:FROG
Friday tagged a new 52-week high at $105.76 and closed $98.74 (−5.1%). That is a failed breakout, not an oversold rebound. 50-day is near $87–88, 200-day near $65–66. Cloud +53% in Q2, NDR 121%, FY guide ~$650M. swampUP investor event Tuesday, September 2 in New York.
Analyst cluster ~$107–$112 (StockAnalysis average $111.71). That is only +8% to +13% from the official close — and the stock already kissed $105.76. The bull case is “hold the $98 handle into the event, tag highs again.” The bear case is a slide toward the 50-day.
| Metric | Level | vs $98.74 close |
|---|---|---|
| Buy zone | 97.50 – 100.00 | first reclaim |
| Invalidation | 92.50 close | −6.3% |
| T1 | 105.80 | +7.1% |
| T2 | 111.70 | +13.1% |
| T3 | 118.00 | +19.5% |
| Mean-revert risk | 87.50 (50-day)
|
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