Bio Hazards
GeoVax Labs
Corrected Asymmetric Swing Playbook
The original matrix used legacy levels from when GOVX traded significantly higher (Entry $2.37 / Hard Stop $1.82). Those levels are invalid at the current \~$1.32 price. This version uses live structural levels only.
Core Technical Setup
What the Chart Shows
- • Macro trend: Bearish — price remains pinned under declining weekly EMAs (EMA13 ≈ $1.57, EMA26 ≈ $1.49)
- • Micro structure: Two-week consolidation floor between $1.17 – $1.41
- • RSI: Neutral (43–55) — plenty of room to run on volume
- • Float & Interest: Low float (\~3.2M) with recent short interest \~11% — squeeze potential on catalyst
Trade Concept
Low-conviction, high-upside “weak swing” bounce play. Accumulate a small position near the structural floor, risk a clean break of the June lows, and look for a volatile low-float pop into overhead EMA supply on any positive fundamental catalyst.
Corrected Execution Matrix
| Parameter | Level | Notes & Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Entry Zone | $1.22 – $1.28 | Layer limit orders across the structural consolidation floor. Captures best average price. |
| Hard Stop Loss | $1.11 – $1.12 | Daily close basis only. Below recent multi-session June low. \~10.4% risk from avg entry. |
| Target 1 (Scale-out) | $1.45 – $1.55 | First overhead resistance band + declining weekly EMAs. Sell 40–50% here. |
| Target 2 / Runner | $1.80 – $2.20+ | Prior consolidation highs. Extend on strong volume + catalyst confirmation. Can stretch to $3+ on major news. |
Fundamental Catalysts (H2 2026)
GEO-MVA (Mpox / Smallpox)
Modified Vaccinia Ankara vaccine targeting orthopoxviruses.
Gedeptin (Oncology)
Gene-directed enzyme prodrug therapy for solid tumors.
COVID Program (GEO-CM04S1)
BARDA Project NextGen contract terminated April 2025. Development of the COVID-19 vaccine candidate discontinued (May 2026). No longer a near-term driver.