Bio Hazards

GOVX • Corrected Trading Playbook • June 2026
GOVX PLAYBOOK
June 27, 2026
v2.1 • Corrected

GeoVax Labs

GOVX

Corrected Asymmetric Swing Playbook

CURRENT REFERENCE
$1.32
+0.8%
as of close Jun 26
Critical Data Mismatch — Fixed

The original matrix used legacy levels from when GOVX traded significantly higher (Entry $2.37 / Hard Stop $1.82). Those levels are invalid at the current \~$1.32 price. This version uses live structural levels only.

Entry Zone
$1.22 – $1.28
Layer limit orders
Hard Stop
$1.11 – $1.12
Daily close basis
Target 1
$1.45 – $1.55
Scale out 40-50%
Target 2
$1.80 – $2.20+
Runner on catalyst
Conviction
\~45/100
Technical • Catalyst-dependent

Core Technical Setup

What the Chart Shows

  • Macro trend: Bearish — price remains pinned under declining weekly EMAs (EMA13 ≈ $1.57, EMA26 ≈ $1.49)
  • Micro structure: Two-week consolidation floor between $1.17 – $1.41
  • RSI: Neutral (43–55) — plenty of room to run on volume
  • Float & Interest: Low float (\~3.2M) with recent short interest \~11% — squeeze potential on catalyst

Trade Concept

Low-conviction, high-upside “weak swing” bounce play. Accumulate a small position near the structural floor, risk a clean break of the June lows, and look for a volatile low-float pop into overhead EMA supply on any positive fundamental catalyst.

1.5–2.5% portfolio risk max

Corrected Execution Matrix

Parameter Level Notes & Rationale
Entry Zone $1.22 – $1.28 Layer limit orders across the structural consolidation floor. Captures best average price.
Hard Stop Loss $1.11 – $1.12 Daily close basis only. Below recent multi-session June low. \~10.4% risk from avg entry.
Target 1 (Scale-out) $1.45 – $1.55 First overhead resistance band + declining weekly EMAs. Sell 40–50% here.
Target 2 / Runner $1.80 – $2.20+ Prior consolidation highs. Extend on strong volume + catalyst confirmation. Can stretch to $3+ on major news.

Fundamental Catalysts (H2 2026)

PRIMARY

GEO-MVA (Mpox / Smallpox)

Modified Vaccinia Ankara vaccine targeting orthopoxviruses.

• Phase 3 immunobridging trial targeted for Q4 2026 initiation
• \~500 patients, expedited EMA pathway
• Addresses global MVA supply shortage + biodefense needs
• Results potentially H1 2027
SECONDARY

Gedeptin (Oncology)

Gene-directed enzyme prodrug therapy for solid tumors.

• Phase 1/2 completed in advanced HNSCC
• Phase 2 planning underway (neoadjuvant + checkpoint inhibitor)
• Targeted initiation window: 2027
• New Oncology Advisory Board formed
NOTE

COVID Program (GEO-CM04S1)

BARDA Project NextGen contract terminated April 2025. Development of the COVID-19 vaccine candidate discontinued (May 2026). No longer a near-term driver.

Risk / Reward Math & Expected Value

Per Share (Avg Entry $1.25)
Risk to Stop
-$0.13
\~10.4%
Reward to T1 ($1.50)
+$0.25
R:R 1.92 : 1
Reward to T2 ($2.00)
+$0.75
R:R 5.77 : 1
Simplified Expected Value Scenarios
Bull 25%
+$0.75
Catalyst ignites + squeeze
Base