ASTS — Let's Fly
$ASTS — SpaceMobile Back-Test + Catalyst
Weekend Catalyst: BlueBird-7 Launch
The launch of the BlueBird-7 satellite via Blue Origin’s New Glenn rocket (NG-3 mission) is scheduled for Sunday, April 19, 2026. This next-generation satellite is expected to expand direct-to-smartphone broadband capacity and support initial service rollout later in 2026.
The Technical Setup
We are seeing a perfect back-test of the falling wedge breakout. Key EMAs have been respected, and an Inverse Head & Shoulders pattern is currently forming inside the larger bullish channel. This structure suggests the recent pullback was healthy and the primary uptrend remains intact.
- Successful back-test of falling wedge breakout.
- EMAs defended with a series of higher lows.
- Inverse Head & Shoulders forming within a larger channel.
- Short interest remains high (~17.5–30% of float), providing "fuel" for a potential squeeze.
Potential: Measured move/extension toward the channel top implies a range of $180–$225. Conservative near-term targets of 30%+ are achievable on a positive launch reaction.
Trade Levels & Percentage Returns
Swipe table left to view all targets and returns »
| Entry Type | Entry Price | Stop Loss | Target 1 | Target 2 | Return T1 | Return T2 | Est. Prob. | R:R (T1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | Close > $90–$92 | $78.00 | $115.00 | $140.00 | +27% | +52% | ~63% | 1:2.9 |
| Aggressive | $82 – $86 (Dip) | $76.00 | $115.00 | $140.00 | +34% | +63% | ~55% | 1:3.3 |
| Momentum | $90.00+ (Follow) | Trail @ $90.00 | $140.00 | $180–$225 | +56% | 110%+ | ~42% | 1:4.5+ |
Execution Strategy
- Entry Confirmation: Watch Monday’s reaction to the launch. A strong close above $90–$92 with elevated volume confirms the move.
- Stop Loss: Placed below recent support (~8–11% risk). If $76 is breached, the technical thesis is invalidated.
- Targets: Target 1 is for initial profit-taking; Target 2 uses the measured-move from the falling wedge projection.
This report is for informational and educational purposes only. Stock trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research, confirm levels with real-time charts, and use proper position sizing and risk management. I am not a licensed financial advisor. Markets and launch events are volatile — trade responsibly.
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