Weekend safer break out play report

AGGRESSIVE TRADER PLAYBOOK
Week of March 16–20, 2026 | Analysis for Shane Shipman
CRITICAL CATALYST: FOMC (MAR 18)
The market is pricing a 92% "Hold." Any hawkish pivot due to $103 Brent Crude could trigger a 3-5% index flush. All tech setups are secondary to the 1:00 PM CST announcement.
VOLATILITY REGIME: VIX 27.28
VIX is elevated. High institutional "void" means "gaps" are more likely. Favor stocks with >2M daily volume (CRWD, MPC, AMZN) to ensure SL execution.

High-Probability Setups (Support & Breakout)

Ticker & Sentiment Multiple Setups Target / Return Stop Loss Game Plan / Logic
CRWD
Cyber/AI Growth		 1. Momentum: $440-445
2. Dip Buy: $428-432		 $510 (+16%)
$485 (+12%)		 $420 Probability: 80%. MS Top Pick. If it holds $439 (5-day MA), expect a melt-up toward $500. Clear breakout above $442.
MPC
Energy/Geopolitical		 1. Breakout: $227-231
2. 20D MA: $218-222		 $260 (+13%)
$245 (+11%)		 $212 Probability: 75%. Brent at $103 is a massive tailwind. Indicators show hidden bullish divergence on the 4H chart.
HIMS
High-Leverage Swing		 1. Coil Break: $29-31
2. MA Retest: $27.50		 $40 (+33%)
$35 (+18%)		 $26.00 Probability: 60%. Retail sentiment is high. To hit 33%, use 45-day Calls. High risk of IV Crush after Mar 18.
AMZN
Tech Recovery		 1. Recovery: $205-208
2. Safety: $198-202		 $235 (+14%)
$225 (+11%)		 $195 Probability: 75%. Showing relative strength vs QQQ. Institutional accumulation noted near $205.

Logical Game Plan & Timeframes

  • Entry Strategy: Do not chase Monday gaps. If a ticker opens more than 3% above the entry zone, wait for the First Hour Low to be tested as new support.
  • The 30% Goal: On large caps (AMZN, CRWD), 30% ROI requires Option Leverage. Look for 0.60 Delta Calls with 30+ days to expiry. For equity-only trades, HIMS is the primary candidate for a 30% move.
  • Exit Protocol: Sell 50% of the position at Target 1. Move Stop Loss to break-even. Let the runner hit Target 2 or trail by 3%.
LOGICAL DISCLAIMERS:

Slippage Risk: Even with high-volume stocks, geopolitical news or hawkish Fed pivots can cause overnight gaps where stop losses are bypassed.

Speculative Nature: These probabilities are based on technical patterns (MACD, RSI, Fibonacci pivots) and are not guarantees.

Educational Only: This post documents an aggressive swing trading strategy for research and journaling purposes. It is not financial advice.

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