TISI 🧐 Go Team Go

Is TISI (Team, Inc.) Setting Up for the Next Leg Higher? Just Pondering the Probabilities

Is TISI (Team, Inc.) Setting Up for the Next Leg Higher?
Just Pondering the Probabilities

December 1, 2025

I was staring at the monthly chart of Team, Inc. (ticker: TISI) the other day — the one that looks like it fell off a cliff, hit the earth’s core, and then somehow blasted back toward the surface — and I couldn’t help but wonder: is this thing actually… bullish now?

With the help of Grok (the AI built by xAI), I started stress-testing the idea of scaling into TISI around current levels (~$15). We built a few scenarios, slapped some rough probabilities on them, and came up with the table below. Think of it as a public brainstorming session — nothing here is financial advice, just one trader (and one very helpful AI) thinking out loud.

Scenario Probability
(my subjective weight)		 Timeframe Scaled Entry
(avg cost)		 Target Range Potential Return Risk-Reward
Bull Case
Breakout on earnings momentum		 ~30% 2–4 weeks $14.50–$15.50
(avg ~$15)		 $20 – $24 +38% to +65% 1:3.5+
Base Case
Grind to analyst consensus		 ~40% 1–3 months $14.50–$15.50
(avg ~$14.80)		 $16 – $20 +8% to +35% 1:2.8
Bear Case
Dead-cat fade, retest support		 ~30% 1–2 weeks $14.50–$15.50 $11 – $13 (stop zone) -13% to -26% (cut losses) Cut early

Weighted expected return across all three outcomes lands roughly in the +20–30% zone over the next 1–3 months if you scale in carefully — not life-changing, but pretty juicy for a stock that was literally left for dead six months ago.

Why even bother?

  • Post-bankruptcy restructuring removed a mountain of debt.
  • Q3 EBITDA beat estimates by a mile (+28% YoY).
  • Tiny float (~5 million shares) + rising volume = potential for explosive moves.
  • Energy/infrastructure tailwinds still intact.

Why it could still flop

  • MACD just flipped bearish on the daily.
  • Some analyst models still have 2025 price targets under $4 (yes, really).
  • Volatility is brutal — 15–25% daily swings are normal.

So I’m left pondering: do I start layering in on any weakness below $15, keep 30–40% cash for a dip to $13–$14, and let the rest ride if we clear $16–$17 on volume? That feels like a reasonable plan for a name this wild.

Important Disclaimer: This post was written with research assistance from Grok (xAI). All scenarios, probabilities, and price targets are speculative and for educational/entertainment purposes only. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. I am not a financial advisor. Do your own due diligence and never risk money you can’t afford to lose. Accuracy is not guaranteed — markets love to make fools of us all.

If you’re watching TISI too, drop a comment — are you in? Waiting? Laughing from the sidelines? Always curious to hear other perspectives.

Stay nimble,
— Your fellow chart nerd

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