UPST On The Up And Up

$UPST Looks Absolutely Yummy for Bulls Right Now – Here's Why Thrill-Seeking Traders Are Piling In

$UPST Looks Absolutely Yummy for Bulls Right Now (Nov 25, 2025)

Current price: ~$41.24 (+5.7% today) – and the thrill-seekers are loading the boat HARD.

An experienced momentum trader with a taste for adrenaline just slammed their second tranche at $41–$42 and is swinging for $60–$80+ into year-end. Here’s exactly what they see and exactly what they’re doing.

Quick Snapshot (Nov 25, 2025)

MetricValueWhy Bulls Care
Price$41.24Breaking out above $40 on big volume
52-Week Range$31.40 – $96.43Trading in the bottom third → classic rebound setup
YTD Return-33%Massively underperformed → mean-reversion candidate
Q3 Revenue Growth+71% YoYBack to profitability, AI model crushing it
Latest Catalyst$1.5B Castlelake fundingOrigination fears dead for the next 12 months
Analyst Avg Target$55.3834% upside from here; high targets $80

What the Thrill-Seeking Pro Is Doing RIGHT NOW

  1. Already owned the bounce from $34–$36 (first tranche last week).
  2. Adding aggressively today at $41–$42 – second tranche 50-100% of original size.
  3. Stop on the add: $37.80 (under today’s low & 20-day EMA). If that goes, whole move is fake → out flat.
  4. Total position now 150–200% of normal size because this smells like a multi-week campaign trade.
  5. Profit-taking plan:
    • $48–$50 → peel 30-40%
    • $58–$62 → peel another 30-40%
    • Trailer the rest toward $80+ if fintech rotation stays hot
  6. Lottery ticket: Small batch of Jan/Feb $45 or $50 calls for cheap gamma.
One-sentence summary of the pro move:
“Buy strength at $41–$42, raise the average, stop under $38, and refuse to leave the next 50-100% on the table.”

Bull Case (Why It Could Rip)

  • Fintech rotation in full swing – $AFRM and $SOFI breaking out too
  • Insiders buying hand-over-fist (CTO just grabbed 100k shares)
  • AI underwriting advantage widening
  • Holiday spending + potential rate-cut tailwinds into 2026

Bear Risks (Don’t Be Dumb)

  • Still expensive at 16x 2025 EBITDA
  • Beta 2.27 → will crater if macro turns risk-off
  • Needs volume to stay elevated or it rolls over fast

Bottom line: If you have the stomach for volatility and hate missing big moves more than you hate drawdowns, $UPST is screaming “load me” right now.

Ride it, peel it, trailer it – but whatever you do, don’t watch the next 50% from the sidelines.

NFA • DYOR • Size appropriately • May the gamma be with you 🚀🐂

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