SWIN - Ready for a swing?

Swing Trade Analysis for Solowin Holdings (SWIN)

Date: September 3, 2025, 01:55 PM CDT

Market Context

• Current Price: $2.569 USD
• Daily Metrics: Open: $4.82, High: $5.389, Low: $2.405, Previous Close: $4.22
• 1-Month Price Range: $2.568 (Sep 3) to $5.0491 (Aug 12)
• 1-Year Price Range: $1.16 (low) to $5.389 (high)
• RSI Values:
  • 14-day RSI: 32.67 (near oversold, Finviz), 53.75–60.93 (neutral, slight bullish bias, Investing.com, AInvest)
  • 5-day RSI: 62.52 (mild bullish momentum, GuruFocus)
• Volatility: 13.44% over 30 days, with a 39% drop from $4.22 to $2.569 today

Analysis: The sharp price drop and 14-day RSI of 32.67 suggest an oversold condition, ideal for a bounce trade. The 5-day RSI of 62.52 indicates prior bullish momentum, but the current downtrend makes breakouts less likely. Support is near $2.40 (daily low), with resistance at $3.50 and $4.22.

Swing Trade Opportunities

Scenario 1: Buy on Pullback to Support (Bounce Trade)

• Setup: Price stabilizes near $2.40 (support), with 14-day RSI rising above 30. Confirm with bullish candlestick (e.g., hammer, bullish engulfing) or volume spike. Price should be near/above 50-day EMA (~$3.00, estimated).
• Entry Point: $2.45 (post-reversal confirmation)
• Exit Point (Target): $3.50 (resistance, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from $5.389 to $2.405)
• Stop-Loss: $2.20 (below support)
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 4.2:1 (Risk: $0.25, Reward: $1.05)
• Percentage Return: 42.86%
• Probability: 65% (high due to oversold RSI and support)

Scenario 2: Breakout Above Resistance (Momentum Trade)

• Setup: Price breaks above $3.50 (resistance) with high volume, 5-day RSI above 60, and MACD bullish crossover. Assumes reversal from current downtrend.
• Entry Point: $3.60 (post-breakout confirmation)
• Exit Point (Target): $4.22 (previous close, next resistance)
• Stop-Loss: $3.30 (below breakout level)
• Risk-Reward Ratio: 2.07:1 (Risk: $0.30, Reward: $0.62)
• Percentage Return: 17.22%
• Probability: 45% (lower due to current downtrend)

Trade Summary Table

Scenario	Entry Point	Exit Point (Target)	Stop-Loss	Risk-Reward Ratio	Percentage Return	Probability
Buy on Pullback to Support	$2.45	$3.50	$2.20	4.2:1	42.86%	65%
Breakout Above Resistance	$3.60	$4.22	$3.30	2.07:1	17.22%	45%

Trading Guidance

• Confirmation:
  • RSI: 14-day RSI above 30 for pullback; above 50 for breakout.
  • Moving Averages: Price near/above 50-day EMA (~$3.00) for bullish signals.
  • Volume: Look for spikes to confirm reversals or breakouts (MC² Finance, Groww).
  • Other Indicators: Use MACD (bullish crossover) or Bollinger Bands (price near lower band for pullback) (Investopedia, Schwab).
• Risk Management:
  • Risk 1–2% of account per trade (e.g., $100–$200 for $10,000 account).
  • Use trailing stops to lock in profits (LuxAlgo).
• Volatility Caution: SWIN’s 13.44% volatility and 39% daily drop indicate high risk. Use small position sizes and tight stop-losses.
• Monitoring: Track real-time RSI, support/resistance, and candlestick patterns on platforms like TradingView or TrendSpider.
• Backtesting: Validate setups with historical data (QuantifiedStrategies.com).

Notes

• Price data based on real-time metrics: $2.569 USD, September 3, 2025.
• Verify entry/exit points and indicators in real-time before trading.
• SWIN’s small market cap and volatility increase risk; trade cautiously.

Sources: Investing.com, AInvest, Finviz, GuruFocus, Investopedia, MC² Finance, StocksToTrade, LuxAlgo, XS.com, EzAlgo, Groww, Schwab, QuantifiedStrategies.com, CoinCodex.