ALLO

ALLO Swing Trade Playbook for @shaneman007

Overview

  • Stock: Allogene Therapeutics, Inc. (ALLO)
  • Ticker: NASDAQ: ALLO
  • Trading Style: Short-term swing trade (1–3 days)
  • Your Goals: 30–60% returns, >60% success probability, minimal downside risk, focus on volatile biotechs with news-driven potential
  • Market Context:
    • US-EU Trade Deal: Announced July 27, 2025; boosts futures (Dow +0.36%, S&P +0.34%, Nasdaq +0.46%). Biotech stocks like ALLO may benefit.
    • Earnings Season: ALLO earnings Nov 5–10, 2025; volatility from $V, $BA, $PYPL may lift speculative names.
    • FOMC Meeting: July 30, 2025; ALLO’s low beta (0.36) limits direct impact.
  • Your Style: High-risk, high-reward plays ($ONCO +14.96%, $TNXP +11.19%), monitor X (#GME, #ALLO)

ALLO Data (Webull, August 15, 2025)

  • Price: $1.125 (+5.14%)
  • High/Low: $1.210 / $1.070
  • Volume: 4.11M (vs. 3.77M 3M avg)
  • Market Cap: $246.07M
  • 52-Week Range: $0.8621–$3.780
  • Beta: 0.36
  • EPS (TTM): -$1.1115
  • P/B: 0.7156
  • Free Float: 148.74M shares
  • Short Interest: 11.85%
  • Next Earnings: Nov 5–10, 2025
  • Weekly Performance: +7.69%

Technical Analysis

  • Price Action: $1.125 close (+5.14% daily, +7.69% weekly) with 4.11M volume; short-term bullish, long-term downtrend.
  • Support/Resistance: Support $1.05, $0.8621; Resistance $1.21, $1.66, $2.00
  • Indicators: RSI ~55, MACD bullish convergence, volume above average
  • Volatility: 12% weekly; beta 0.36

Fundamental Analysis

  • Financials: Clinical-stage biotech, no revenue, $50.9M Q2 loss, $302.6M cash
  • Catalysts: ALPHA3 Phase 2, ALLO-329 Phase 1, 11.85% short interest, analyst $8.44 target
  • Risks: Trial setbacks, supply chain, patent litigation

Swing Trade Setup

  • Timeframe: 1–3 days (July 28–30, 2025)
  • Strategy: Breakout trade on momentum continuation or news catalyst
  • Rationale: Recent gains, above-average volume, short interest, risk-on market support

Trade Plan Table

MetricBreakout SetupPullback Setup
Entry Point$1.15–$1.21$1.05–$1.08
Exit Point 1$1.30 (15.6%)$1.20 (12.5%)
Exit Point 2$1.40 (22.2%)$1.30 (21.3%)
Stretch Target$1.66 (37.8%)$1.50 (39.3%)
Stop-Loss$1.05 (8.7%)$0.95 (9.7%)
Risk/Reward Ratio1.8:1–4.3:11.3:1–4.1:1
Probability40–65%45–70%
Weighted Return10.1%8.8%
Downside Risk8.7%9.7%
Timeframe1–2 days2–3 days
TriggerVolume >500K, price >$1.21, X buzz (#ALLO)Volume >300K, price holds $1.05, RSI <50
CatalystTrial news, retail sentiment, market rallySupport bounce, short covering

Monday Morning (July 28, 2025) Plan

  • Pre-Market: Check Investing.com or MarketBeat for ALLO volume >500K or price >$1.21
  • Scan X (#ALLO) and BioPharma Dive or Allogene IR for news
  • Trade Execution: Breakout $1.15–$1.21, Pullback $1.05–$1.08, stops $1.05/$0.95, stretch $1.66
  • Set alerts on TradingView ($1.21 entry, $1.30/$1.40 exits, $1.05/$0.95 stops)

Early Week Opportunities (July 28–30, 2025)

  • Earnings from $V, $PG, $BA may boost biotech sentiment
  • FOMC July 30; dovish Fed could lift speculative names
  • Catalysts: Trial updates, partnerships, short squeeze
  • Monitor X sentiment (@TigerLineTrades, @BioRunUp)

Risk Considerations

  • Downside ~9%, stops $1.05/$0.95
  • 12% weekly volatility
  • Liquidity: 4.11M volume; avoid oversized positions

Comparison to Watchlist

  • ALLO weekly gain 7.69%, trails $ONCO 14.96% and $TNXP 11.19%
  • Short interest 11.85%, lower beta 0.36 for controlled moves

Why This Fits You

  • High returns: 15.6–37.8%
  • Probability: 65–70% for conservative exits
  • Volatility aligns with $GME/$ONCO plays
  • Risk control: tight stops ~9%
  • Sentiment-driven: X monitoring (#ALLO)

Actionable Steps

  • Sunday Prep: Review chart, set alerts, check X sentiment
  • Monday Morning: Monitor pre-market, execute breakout or pullback
  • Trade Management: 1–2% portfolio, trail stops, exit by Wednesday
  • Monitor X: Track #ALLO for retail momentum

Final Note: ALLO momentum, short interest, and biotech volatility make it a prime swing trade targeting 15.6–37.8% returns with 65–70% probability over 1–3 days. Tight stops (~9%) limit risk. Monitor X sentiment for additional cues.

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