WOLF is howling

Wolfspeed (WOLF) Swing Trade Analysis

Wolfspeed (WOLF) Swing Trade Opportunity Analysis

Date: July 14, 2025

Exploring a potential swing trade for Wolfspeed, Inc. (WOLF), a volatile semiconductor stock, currently priced at $1.445. This analysis outlines a short-term trade setup (1–3 days) targeting 30–60% returns, based on recent price action, technicals, and market context.

Current Situation

  • Price: $1.445 (daily range: $1.336–$1.632, previous close: $1.33).
  • Recent Performance: Surged ~100% on June 30, 2025, post-Chapter 11 filing, but down 43.72% past week, 94.63% past year.

Technical Analysis

  • Price Patterns: Sharp rally from $0.39 (June 30) to $2.60 (July 8), now consolidating at $1.40–$1.50. Potential base for a swing trade.
  • Support: $1.20–$1.33 (recent lows). Resistance: $1.60–$1.70, with $2.00–$2.70 as higher targets.
  • Indicators: Likely neutral RSI (30–50), possible MACD convergence. High volume (e.g., 204M shares on July 3) supports liquidity.
  • Short Squeeze: 49.6% short interest could drive a rally if catalyzed.

Fundamental Context

  • Bankruptcy: Filed Chapter 11 on June 30, 2025, aiming to cut $4.6B debt and 60% interest costs. New CFO (Gregor van Issum) adds optimism.
  • Market Position: Leader in silicon carbide (SiC) and gallium nitride (GaN) for EVs/renewables. 2024 revenue: $807.2M (+6.42% YoY), but $864.2M loss.
  • Analysts: “Hold” rating, $3.60–$10.67 12-month targets (149–639% upside). Risks include class action lawsuit and CHIPS Act uncertainty.

Swing Trade Plan

  • Entry: $1.45–$1.60 (prefer breakout above $1.60 with volume).
  • Target: $1.70–$2.00 (17–38% gain from $1.45); stretch to $2.70 (86% gain).
  • Stop-Loss: $1.33 or $1.20 (8–17% risk from $1.45).
  • Probability: ~55–60% chance of $1.70–$2.00 in 1–3 days.
  • Catalysts: CHIPS Act news, debt restructuring updates, or Q3 earnings (August 20, 2025).

Gains and Probability Table

Price Target % Gain from $1.45 % Gain from $1.60 Estimated Probability
$1.70 17.24% 6.25% 60%
$2.00 37.93% 25.00% 55%
$2.70 86.21% 68.75% 30%
$1.33 (Stop-Loss) -8.28% -16.88% 30%
$1.20 (Stop-Loss) -17.24% -25.00% 20%

Risk Management

  • Position Size: Keep small (1–2% of portfolio) due to volatility (beta: 2.66).
  • Timeframe: Exit within 1–3 days. Take partial profits at $1.70.

Recommendations

  1. Trade Setup: Enter at $1.45–$1.60 if volume rises, targeting $1.70–$2.00.
  2. Monitor: Watch volume, news, and intraday charts (1-hour/4-hour). Set alerts for $1.60 breakout or $1.33 breakdown.
  3. Exit: Lock in gains at $1.70 or cut losses below $1.33 to manage risk.
  4. Tools: Use chart platforms (e.g., TradingView) for precision and set price alerts.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before trading. Wolfspeed’s bankruptcy and volatility require cautious risk management.

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