ONCO ONCO

Is Onconetix (ONCO) a Good Buying or Swing Trade Opportunity?

Date: July 16, 2025

Onconetix, Inc. (NASDAQ: ONCO) recently dropped 20.17% to $3.705, sparking interest among traders and investors. With a low float, high volatility, and upcoming catalysts like a merger with Ocuvex Therapeutics, is this dip a buying opportunity or a viable swing trade? Let’s dive into the analysis.

Stock Price Context and Technical Analysis

ONCO is trading at $3.705, near its 52-week low of $3.291, after a steep decline from a high of $1,190. The stock’s moving averages (MA5: $4.315, MA10: $4.510, MA20: $4.439) indicate bearish momentum, as the price is below these levels. However, high trading volume (2.47M vs. a 3-month average of 299.69K) and proximity to the low suggest potential oversold conditions, which could attract swing traders.

Fundamentals and Recent Developments

• Company Profile: Onconetix is a biotech focusing on men’s health and oncology, with products like Proclarix (prostate cancer diagnostic) and Entadfi (FDA-approved for benign prostatic hyperplasia).
• Reverse Stock Split: A 1-for-85 reverse split was executed on June 11, 2025, reducing shares and boosting volatility due to a low free float (460.92K shares).
• Nasdaq Compliance: ONCO faced delisting risks but secured continued listing on June 16, 2025, contingent on meeting filing and bid price requirements by June 30, 2025.
• Merger with Ocuvex: A potential Q4 2025 merger could expand ONCO’s portfolio into ophthalmic treatments, with Ocuvex equity holders owning 90% of the combined entity.
• Financials: Negative EPS (-$2,779.8339) and a low P/B ratio (0.3462) reflect a speculative, pre-profit biotech with undervaluation potential but high risk.

Swing Trade Opportunity

ONCO’s low float and volatility make it a candidate for swing trading. The stock could see a short-term bounce to $4.50–$5.00, offering 20–40% returns. However, risks include Nasdaq delisting and ongoing losses. Traders should use a tight stop-loss (e.g., below $3.291) and wait for a reversal signal (e.g., bullish candlestick or RSI divergence).

Potential Returns and Odds

The table and chart below outline potential swing trade outcomes, assuming an entry at $3.705.

Scenario	Target Price	% Return	Estimated Odds
Bullish (Bounce to MA5)	$4.315	+16.5%	40%
Optimistic (Recent High)	$5.00	+34.9%	25%
Bearish (New Low)	$3.00	-19.0%	35%

Chart Description: The chart below visualizes the potential percentage returns for each scenario, with bars representing bullish (+16.5%), optimistic (+34.9%), and bearish (-19.0%) outcomes. Estimated odds are based on technical indicators, volatility, and upcoming catalysts like the merger.

Buying Opportunity for Long-Term Investors

ONCO’s weak fundamentals (negative EPS, compliance risks) make it a risky long-term hold. The low P/B ratio suggests undervaluation, but the merger’s impact is uncertain. Only high-risk-tolerant investors should consider a long-term position, pending more clarity on earnings (August 27–31, 2025) and merger progress.

Recommendation

Swing Trade: ONCO offers a speculative swing trade opportunity with potential 20–40% returns. Wait for a technical reversal or merger news, and use a stop-loss below $3.291. Limit position size due to high volatility.

Long-Term Buy: Too risky for conservative investors due to compliance issues and losses. Speculative investors may consider it if bullish on the merger.

Monitor earnings and merger updates closely. Conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Stock trading involves significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own due diligence and consider your risk tolerance.

Scenario	Target Price	% Return	Estimated Odds
Optimistic (Recent High)	$5.00	+34.9%	25%
Bullish (Bounce to MA5)	$4.315	+16.5%	30%
Neutral (Consolidation)	$3.50–$4.00	-5.5% to +8.0%	25%
Moderate Bearish (Psychological Support)	$3.00	-19.0%	35%
Severe Bearish (Extreme Low)	$1.50	-59.5%	10%

Updated Swing Trading Playbook (July 25, 2025)

ONCO dipped to $3.465 before bouncing to $4.15, signaling a potential bottom. Here’s an updated swing trading strategy:

• Entry: Buy at $4.00–$4.15, or $3.80–$3.90 on a pullback with volume confirmation.
• Targets: $4.65 (+12.05%), $5.013 (+20.80%), or $6.00 (+44.58%) for a short squeeze.
• Stop-Loss: $3.80 (-8.43%) for tight risk, or $3.465 (-16.51%) below the daily low.
• Timeframe: 3–10 days, extend to 2–3 weeks for the $6.00 target with a catalyst.
• Catalysts: Earnings (August 11, 2025), Ocuvex merger updates, or a short squeeze above $4.28.
• Risk Management: Use a 1–2% position size due to 8.09% volatility and biotech risks.

The bounce, high volume (2.47M shares), and short interest (5.69%) suggest upside potential, but monitor for a break below $3.465, which could signal further downside to $3.00 (-27.71%).