NOTE Worthy

Is FiscalNote Holdings (NOTE) Breaking Out? A Bullish Case Analysis

Published: July 22, 2025, 06:07 PM CDT

My recent analysis of FiscalNote Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:NOTE) has me convinced this stock is looking extremely bullish, especially with its recent price action. Trading at $0.8270 as of the close on July 22, 2025 (up 10.56% from the previous day), NOTE appears to be breaking through a key resistance level. Let’s dive into the data, chart patterns, and potential targets to assess this momentum.

Chart Analysis: A Potential Breakout

Based on the chart snapshot provided (captured at 6:04 PM CDT), here’s a breakdown of the technical setup:

• Current Price: Closed at $0.8270, with a post-close dip to $0.8020, reflecting a 10.56% daily gain from the prior close.
• Resistance Level: The $0.80-$0.82 zone, tapped three times in recent weeks, has acted as a ceiling. Today’s close above this level suggests a breakout, pending confirmation.
• Price Action: A strong green candlestick indicates robust buying pressure, with the stock climbing from intraday lows near $0.745 to a high of $0.835.
• Moving Averages: The shorter-term moving average (likely 50-day, green) is crossing above the longer-term average (likely 200-day, red), hinting at a potential golden cross—a bullish signal if sustained.
• Next Resistance: If the breakout holds, the $1.00-$1.10 range, seen as prior highs in May, becomes the next target.

Caution: The after-hours pullback to $0.8020 suggests profit-taking. Confirmation requires the stock to hold above $0.82 tomorrow with solid volume, given NOTE’s high volatility (beta 1.96).

Fundamental and Market Context

Beyond the chart, several factors support this bullish outlook:

• Recent Performance: NOTE has risen 46.18% over the past month (from $0.57 on June 23) and 37.75% in the last week, driven by strategic moves.
• Analyst Sentiment: Six analysts rate NOTE a “Strong Buy” with an average 12-month target of $2.63, implying a 218.0% upside. Targets range from $1.05 to $5.00, with recent upgrades (e.g., D. Boral Capital to $3.75) adding credence.
• Strategic Developments: The launch of PolicyNote, an AI-driven legislative drafting tool, has outpaced legacy platforms. Divestitures (e.g., TimeBase for $6.5M) and plans to reduce senior debt by over 60% signal a focus on profitability within 2-3 years.
• Risks: Negative EBITDA (-$4.04M), declining ARR, and short interest (12.53% of float) pose challenges. The stock’s 45.56% year-over-year decline and volatility warrant caution.

Potential Targets and Probabilities

To quantify the upside, here’s a table of potential price targets, estimated probabilities (based on analyst consensus distribution), and percentage gains from the current $0.8270 price:

Price Target ($)	Probability (%)	Percentage Gain (%)	Notes
1.05	15%	27.0%	Low-end analyst target
2.00	25%	141.8%	Mid-range target from analysts
2.63	35%	218.0%	Average analyst target
3.31	15%	300.2%	Higher-end analyst target
4.72	10%	470.7%	High-end analyst target

Note: Probabilities are speculative, derived from the spread of analyst targets. The $2.00-$3.31 range (141.8%-300.2% gains) aligns with the “Strong Buy” consensus, while higher targets ($4.72, 470.7%) are less certain but possible with sustained momentum.

Conclusion: A Bullish Case with Caveats

NOTE’s recent breakout above $0.82 resistance, supported by a 10.56% daily gain, strong analyst backing, and strategic AI/product developments, paints a compelling bullish picture. The most probable targets ($2.00-$3.31) offer significant upside, with the $1.00-$1.10 level as the next near-term test. However, the stock’s volatility, short interest, and fundamental challenges (e.g., negative EBITDA) mean this is no sure bet. Confirmation of the breakout tomorrow, with volume, will be critical.

For traders and investors, this is a stock worth watching closely. If you’re building a position, consider scaling in and setting stop-losses near $0.75 to manage risk. Stay tuned for updates as earnings approach (May 8, 2025) and momentum plays out.

Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and not financial advice. Always conduct your own research or consult a professional before trading.

Next Steps: Want a visual chart of these targets? Let me know, and I can generate one via a canvas panel!