MBRX Note

Important Note on Price Discrepancy ($0.3167 vs. $2.50)

There’s been confusion around $MBRX’s share price due to a recent reverse split and a $5.9 million public offering. Here’s a breakdown:

• Pre-Split Price: Many older charts and screeners still reflect prices in the $2.40–$2.60 range. This data is before the company executed a reverse split and conducted a dilutive offering.
• Post-Split/Offering Price: As of June 26, 2025, $MBRX trades at ~$0.3167, reflecting both the reverse split and dilution from the offering of 16.08 million shares at $0.37.

This blog post uses the updated $0.3167 price to ensure real-time relevance for new traders and chart watchers. However, we also include a separate trade plan for those tracking the legacy $2.50 level to avoid confusion.

$MBRX: A High-Risk, High-Reward Swing Trade Opportunity for Aggressive Traders

Small-cap biotech stocks are a rollercoaster, but for traders chasing explosive 50–100%+ gains, Moleculin Biotech ($MBRX) is making waves. With a low float, recent volume surges, and promising catalysts, $MBRX offers a compelling setup for aggressive swing traders willing to hold for 1–2 weeks—or longer if momentum builds. Here’s a deep dive into why $MBRX is worth watching, complete with technicals, catalysts, sentiment from X, and a precise trade plan.

Why $MBRX? The Setup

As of June 26, 2025, $MBRX trades at approximately $0.3167 (post-offering adjusted), with a float of ~12.79M shares and a market cap of $12–15M. Recent trading volume hit 11.47M shares in a single day—nearly matching the float—signaling intense retail interest and potential for sharp moves. High volatility (4.92% daily) and short interest (13.79%) make it a prime candidate for a short squeeze or catalyst-driven breakout.

Note: Some data sources reference a $2.40–$2.60 range, likely pre-dating a reverse split or recent $5.9M offering (16.08M shares at $0.37). This post focuses on the $0.3167 price for real-time relevance but includes a $2.50 scenario for traders using older data.

Technical Analysis: Ready for a Breakout?

• Price Action: At $0.3167, $MBRX is testing key support at $0.29, with resistance at $0.35, $0.41, and $0.51. A breakout above $0.35 on volume >15M could ignite a 30–60% move, with stretch potential to $0.67–$0.80 (100–150%).
• RSI: ~45–50 (neutral), leaving room for upside without overbought risk.
• MACD: Early bullish divergence on daily charts, hinting at reversal.
• Beta: 1.64–2.53, perfect for traders craving volatility.

Alternate Scenario ($2.50): If trading at ~$2.50, support lies at $2.20–$2.50, with resistance at $3.00–$3.50. A close above $3.00 targets $4.50–$6.00 (80–140% gains).

Catalysts Driving the Move

• Phase 3 MIRACLE Trial (AML): First patient dosed April 2025. Interim data (45 patients) expected H2 2025—potentially a 100%+ catalyst.
• Pediatric Study Approval: FDA approved a pediatric plan for Annamycin in AML (June 2025).
• STS Lung Metastases: Positive Phase 1B/2 data reinforced by June 2025 KOL webcast.
• Global Expansion: EMA-approved trials in 9 EU countries, 38 sites active.
• Patents & Designations: Two U.S. patents (protection through 2040), Fast Track, and Orphan Drug designations.
• Financials: $8M cash (Q1 2025) + $5.9M offering. Another raise (~$15M) may be needed by Q1 2026.

X Sentiment: Retail Buzz and Insider Confidence

• Volume Surge: Traders cited 12.8M–31M share days; $MBRX labeled “parabolic continuation.”
• Insider Buying: Purchases during offering at $0.37 imply confidence.
• Retail Targets: $0.35, $0.41, and $0.51 with stop-losses at $0.29.
• Caution: Dilution risk and biotech volatility flagged; tight stops advised.

Aggressive Swing Trade Plan

Price Scenario 1: $0.3167

• Entry: $0.32–$0.35 on close above $0.35 or volume >15M. Scale in at $0.29.
• Targets:
  • T1: $0.41 (30%)
  • T2: $0.51 (60%)
  • T3: $0.67–$0.80 (100–150%)
• Stop-Loss: $0.29 (tight), $0.27 (aggressive sizing).
• Horizon: 1–2 weeks; extend if trial data nears.
• Sizing: 10–20% portfolio with 3–5x leverage; reserve 30% cash.

Price Scenario 2: $2.50

• Entry: $2.50–$2.70 on close above $2.70 or volume >1M. Scale in at $2.20.
• Targets:
  • T1: $3.50 (40%)
  • T2: $4.50 (80%)
  • T3: $6.00 (140%)
• Stop-Loss: $2.10 (moderate), $1.90 (looser stop).

Execution Tips

• Monitor X (e.g., @Trooper_Trading, @ParabolicScan) for sentiment shifts.
• Set TradingView alerts for breakout points ($0.35/$2.70).
• Take partial profits at T1 and T2.
• Be alert for offering news or halts, which may cause rapid 20–50% drops.
• Key Dates: H2 2025 for trial results; AACR 2025 (April 25–30) for combo data.

Risks to Watch

• Dilution: Additional offerings likely by Q1 2026.
• Trial Failures: Negative data could cause a 30–50% drop overnight.
• Volatility: Low float and short interest create extreme price swings.

Bonus Watchlist: Similar Setups

• $TNXP (Tonix Pharmaceuticals): ~$0.45, 10M float, 12% short interest. Targets $0.60–$0.80 on Phase 2 CNS trial news (Q3 2025).
• $VIRI (Virios Therapeutics): ~$0.30, 8M float, 15% short interest. Targets $0.45–$0.60 on Phase 2b fibromyalgia results (H2 2025).

Final Thoughts

$MBRX is a classic biotech gamble: high risk, high reward. Its low float, surging volume, and approaching catalysts make it a top swing trade pick for aggressive traders. Stay active on X, check BioPharmCatalyst regularly, and use technicals for precise entries and exits. Whether targeting $0.51–$0.80 or watching $TNXP/$VIRI, discipline and risk management are your edge.

Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research and consult a licensed financial professional. Trading stocks involves significant risk.