BTC Bitcoin Not A Wild Swing But Noteworthy

The information provided is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice.

Bitcoin (BTC) is indeed showing signs of testing key support levels, which could present a potential entry point for investors, depending on your risk tolerance and investment strategy. Below, I’ll analyze the current price action, support levels, and factors to consider for a potential entry into BTC as of June 21, 2025. Please note that this is not financial advice, and you should consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Current Bitcoin Price Context

• Current Price (June 21, 2025): Based on recent web sources, Bitcoin is trading around $104,500–$106,950, with some consolidation near $105,000 after failing to break above the $108,000 resistance zone.
• Recent Price Action: BTC has retraced from its all-time high of $111,891.30 on May 22, 2025, and is now testing key support levels around $103,400–$105,300. It’s consolidating within a symmetrical triangle, with reduced volatility indicated by shrinking Bollinger Band width.
• Support Levels: Key supports are identified at $103,400–$104,000, with additional liquidity pockets at $102,000 and $100,600. A break below $103,200 could signal a deeper correction toward $99,000 or $96,000.
• Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance lies at $105,600–$107,000, with a stronger ceiling at $108,200–$109,870. A breakout above $108,200 could target $110,000 or higher.

Technical Indicators

• Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI on the 4-hour chart is around 44.4, showing a mild bearish bias but not yet oversold (below 30). On the daily chart, RSI is at 50.44, indicating neutral momentum. This suggests BTC is neither overbought nor oversold, supporting a potential stabilization at current levels.
• Moving Averages: BTC is trading below the 20/50/100 EMA cluster ($104,950–$105,792) and the 200 EMA ($106,672) on the 4-hour chart, indicating short-term bearish pressure. However, the daily chart shows a bullish structure with the 50-day MA rising above the price, which could act as resistance if tested.
• MACD: A bearish crossover on the 30-minute chart and declining histogram momentum suggest fading upside strength, pointing to possible consolidation or a minor pullback.
• On-Chain Metrics: Posts on X highlight institutional buying, with BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF holding over 3% of BTC supply, and a 12% increase in wallets holding over 1 BTC, indicating long-term accumulation despite short-term profit-taking.

Factors Supporting a Potential Entry

1. Support Zone: BTC is currently near a critical support cluster at $103,400–$105,300, which has held firm recently. This zone aligns with historical demand and the lower boundary of a symmetrical triangle, making it a potential area for buyers to step in.
2. Institutional Demand: Strong inflows into U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs ($5.14 billion in the last 30 days) and accumulation by long-term holders suggest underlying bullish sentiment. Companies like Semler Scientific are increasing BTC holdings, reinforcing confidence.
3. Bullish Long-Term Outlook: Analysts remain optimistic about BTC’s 2025 trajectory, with price predictions ranging from $130,000–$155,000 by year-end, driven by institutional adoption, favorable regulations, and Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against inflation.
4. Geopolitical and Macro Factors: Ongoing tensions (e.g., Israel-Iran conflict) and a weakening U.S. dollar could drive demand for BTC as a “digital gold” hedge, supporting price stability or upside potential.

Risks to Consider

1. Short-Term Bearish Pressure: Failed breakout attempts above $108,000 and a bearish MACD crossover indicate potential for further consolidation or a dip to $102,000–$100,600 if support at $103,400 fails.
2. Market Volatility: Geopolitical events and macroeconomic shifts (e.g., Federal Reserve policy changes) could trigger risk-off sentiment, impacting BTC’s price. The correlation with stock indices like the S&P 500 (0.75 coefficient) suggests BTC could face pressure if equities decline.
3. On-Chain Warning Signs: Some X posts note fading ETF demand, slowing capital inflows, and flat active addresses, which could signal a late-cycle phase with reduced momentum.
4. High Volatility: BTC’s historical volatility (1.91% over the last 30 days) means even a support-level entry carries risk of sudden swings.

Potential Entry Points

Given BTC’s current position near support, here are strategies for identifying entry points for a long-term investment:

1. Buy at Current Support ($103,400–$105,300):
   • Rationale: The current price is within a well-established demand zone, supported by on-chain accumulation and institutional buying. Entering here offers a favorable risk-reward if BTC holds support and resumes its bullish trend.
   • Action: Consider a small initial position with a stop-loss below $103,200 to limit downside risk. Monitor for a bounce or increased volume to confirm buyer interest.
2. Wait for a Deeper Pullback ($100,600–$102,000):
   • Rationale: If support at $103,400 fails, BTC could retest $102,000 or $100,600, both identified as major liquidity pockets. These levels may attract strong buying interest, offering a lower entry price.
   • Action: Set buy orders in this range and watch for RSI dropping to oversold levels (below 30) or a reversal candlestick pattern to confirm a potential bottom.
3. Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA):
   • Rationale: Given BTC’s volatility and uncertain short-term direction, DCA allows you to spread risk by investing fixed amounts over time (e.g., weekly or monthly). This is ideal for a long-term bullish outlook without timing the exact bottom.
   • Action: Start with a small investment at current levels and continue buying on dips, especially if prices approach $100,600 or lower.
4. Breakout Confirmation ($108,200+):
   • Rationale: A clear break above $108,200 with strong volume could invalidate the current lower high structure and signal a resumption of the bullish trend, targeting $110,000–$115,000. This is a higher-risk entry but aligns with strong momentum.
   • Action: Wait for a daily close above $108,200 and monitor ETF inflows or geopolitical catalysts for confirmation. Set a tight stop-loss below $107,000 to manage risk.

Recommendations

• Conservative Approach: Start with DCA, investing small amounts at current levels ($104,500–$105,300) and increasing on dips toward $102,000 or $100,600. This mitigates the risk of a deeper correction while building a position for long-term gains.
• Moderate Approach: Enter a partial position at the current support ($103,400–$105,300), with a stop-loss below $103,200. Add to the position if BTC bounces and holds above $105,600, confirming buyer strength.
• Aggressive Approach: Wait for a breakout above $108,200 with high volume, targeting $110,000–$115,000. This suits traders comfortable with higher risk and short-term momentum plays.
• Portfolio Allocation: Limit BTC exposure to 5–10% of your portfolio to manage volatility, especially given its high-risk nature.

Additional Considerations

• Monitor Technicals: Watch RSI, MACD, and volume for signs of a reversal or breakout. A bullish divergence on the 4-hour chart, as noted on X, could signal an imminent bounce.
• Track Macro Events: Federal Reserve interest rate decisions, U.S.-China trade talks, and Middle East tensions could impact BTC’s price. Positive regulatory developments (e.g., U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve) could act as a catalyst.
• Use Reliable Exchanges: For buying BTC, use well-known platforms like Binance, Coinbase, or Kraken to ensure liquidity and security.
• Review On-Chain Data: Platforms like Glassnode or CoinGecko can provide insights into wallet activity and ETF inflows to gauge market sentiment.

Conclusion

BTC’s current position near the $103,400–$105,300 support level presents a potential entry opportunity, particularly for long-term investors bullish on Bitcoin’s 2025 outlook. The combination of institutional accumulation, strong on-chain support, and a neutral RSI suggests stabilization is possible, but short-term risks (e.g., a break below $103,400) warrant caution. A conservative DCA strategy or a small position at current levels with a tight stop-loss is a prudent approach, while aggressive traders may wait for a breakout above $108,200. Always conduct your own research and consult a financial advisor to align this with your financial goals.

Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency investments carry significant risks, including potential loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The information provided is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.

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• $105,600.
• Aggressive: Wait for a breakout above $108,200, targeting $110,000–$115,000.

Monitor technical indicators (RSI, MACD, volume) and macro catalysts closely. For further customization, let me know if you want a chart, specific indicator analysis, or a focus on a particular timeframe (e.g., intraday vs. weekly).

Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and carry significant risks, including potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This information is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before investing.

• $105,600.
• Aggressive: Wait for a breakout above $108,200, targeting $110,000–$115,000.

Monitor technical indicators (RSI, MACD, volume) and macro catalysts closely. For further customization, let me know if you want a chart, specific indicator analysis, or a focus on a particular timeframe (e.g., intraday vs. weekly).

Disclaimer: Cryptocurrency investments are highly volatile and carry significant risks, including potential loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. This information is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Consult a financial advisor before investing.